This week’s biggest COT shifts — who moved most
Ranked by the weekly change in net position as a share of each contract’s open interest, so a 5,000-contract move in a small market and a 60,000 move in a large one compare fairly.
- New Zealand dollar−21,898% of OI-16.2%Pct pts-34Now—
- Japanese yen−48,377% of OI-8.9%Pct pts-8Now—
- British pound−23,853% of OI-7.6%Pct pts-10Now—
- Nasdaq-100 E-mini+22,432% of OI6.9%Pct pts15Now—
- Copper+15,388% of OI5.1%Pct pts6Now—
- Dow Jones E-mini−4,833% of OI-4.8%Pct pts-15Now—
- Cocoa−8,112% of OI-4.4%Pct pts-5Now—
- Canadian dollar−15,633% of OI-4.4%Pct pts-8Now—
- Mexican peso−12,615% of OI-4.0%Pct pts-14Now—
- Cotton No. 2−13,745% of OI-3.6%Pct pts-2Now—
- Coffee−5,197% of OI-3.4%Pct pts-5Now—
- Brazilian real−3,848% of OI-3.3%Pct pts-4Now—
- Euro FX−25,341% of OI-2.8%Pct pts-4Now—
- Class III milk−922% of OI-2.7%Pct pts-1Now—
- Orange juice−248% of OI-2.6%Pct pts-3Now—
- US 30-year T-bond+47,352% of OI2.5%Pct pts10Now—
- Soybean oil−14,578% of OI-2.4%Pct pts-4Now—
- Palladium−383% of OI-2.3%Pct pts-4Now—
- S&P MidCap 400 E-mini−901% of OI-1.9%Pct pts-15Now—
- Soybeans+20,398% of OI1.8%Pct pts1Now—
- US 5-year T-note+116,513% of OI1.8%Pct pts0Now—
- Wheat (Chicago SRW)−8,588% of OI-1.8%Pct pts-5Now—
- RBOB gasoline+6,204% of OI1.7%Pct pts8Now—
- VIX futures+7,305% of OI1.6%Pct pts5Now—
- Australian dollar−7,908% of OI-1.6%Pct pts-8Now—
- Sugar No. 11−18,111% of OI-1.5%Pct pts-1Now—
- S&P 500 E-mini−32,767% of OI-1.3%Pct pts-10Now—
- Swiss franc+2,236% of OI1.3%Pct pts9Now—
- Bitcoin (CME)+288% of OI1.3%Pct pts1Now—
- Wheat (Kansas City HRW)−3,845% of OI-1.2%Pct pts-1Now—
- Aluminum (Midwest premium)−370% of OI-1.2%Pct pts-4Now—
- South African rand+523% of OI1.2%Pct pts0Now—
- US 2-year T-note−51,712% of OI-1.1%Pct pts-3Now—
- Gold−4,485% of OI-1.1%Pct pts-3Now—
- Feeder cattle−606% of OI-1.0%Pct pts-3Now—
- Euro / British pound cross+432% of OI1.0%Pct pts—Now—
- Rough rice−125% of OI-0.9%Pct pts0Now—
- 30-day Fed funds−22,519% of OI-0.9%Pct pts-3Now—
- Russell 2000 E-mini−3,433% of OI-0.7%Pct pts-2Now—
- Ethanol−282% of OI-0.6%Pct pts-5Now—
- ULSD (heating oil)+1,678% of OI0.6%Pct pts6Now—
- US Dollar Index−263% of OI-0.6%Pct pts0Now—
- Hot-rolled coil steel−222% of OI-0.5%Pct pts-2Now—
- Corn−6,583% of OI-0.3%Pct pts-1Now—
- US Ultra T-bond+8,478% of OI0.3%Pct pts3Now—
- Lean hogs+916% of OI0.3%Pct pts1Now—
- Natural gas+5,057% of OI0.3%Pct pts1Now—
- WTI crude oil+5,201% of OI0.3%Pct pts3Now—
- Platinum+146% of OI0.2%Pct pts0Now—
- US 10-year T-note+9,484% of OI0.2%Pct pts5Now—
% of OI = this week’s change in net position divided by the contract’s open interest, so markets of different sizes compare fairly. A big move is news about positioning, not a forecast.
How to read the COT report
What the COT report is
Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.
Why a percentile, not the raw number
Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).
How people read the extremes
Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What it can’t tell you
The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.
Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.