Ethanol COT report: large speculators at the 77th percentile of three years
Large speculators are more long than in 77% of the last 156 weekly reports. They hold 7,939 contracts net long, down 282 on the week.
Positions by trader group
Open interest 44,493
Three years of positioning
Table view: all 156 weeks
This reading in context
- Window high+9,556 · Tue 24 Oct 2023
- Window low−933 · Tue 1 Jul 2025
- Weeks at 90th+4 of 29 · how rare this reading is
Past extreme readings
- Extreme long1 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 93rd · net +8.9k
- Extreme short1 Sep ’26 · Small traders · 8th · net −178
- Extreme short25 Aug ’26 · Small traders · 10th · net −121
- Extreme short18 Aug ’26 · Small traders · 2nd · net −338
- Extreme short11 Aug ’26 · Small traders · 0th · net −436
- Extreme short4 Aug ’26 · Small traders · 2nd · net −285
- Extreme short28 Jul ’26 · Small traders · 2nd · net −278
- Extreme short21 Jul ’26 · Small traders · 2nd · net −296
- Extreme short14 Jul ’26 · Small traders · 2nd · net −249
- Extreme short7 Jul ’26 · Small traders · 0th · net −411
Weekly change, last 12 reports
Large speculators have reduced their net position for 3 straight weeks.
Related contracts
Positioning is descriptive: it shows where each group stands against its own history, not where price goes next. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What the COT report is, and how to read it
What the COT report is
Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.
Why a percentile, not the raw number
Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).
How people read the extremes
Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What it can’t tell you
The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.
Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.