Natural gas COT report: large speculators at the 2nd percentile of three years

Name: Natural gas Commitments of Traders positioning
Creator: TradeEasy

Large speculators are more short than in 98% of the last 156 weekly reports. They hold 216,530 contracts net short, up 5,057 on the week.

NG · CFTC Legacy report, futures only · data as of Tue 22 Sep 2026 · published Fri 25 Sep · next Fri 2 Oct, 15:30 ET

Large speculators · 3-year percentile

2^ndExtreme short

Last week 0th1-year 5th

Positions by trader group

Trader groupLongShortNetWk chg% OI long3-year percentile1-yr

Large speculatorsNon-commercial traders306,362522,892−216,530+5,05716.7%2^ndExtreme short5th

CommercialsHedgers and producers605,834402,310+203,524−3,22833.0%99^thExtreme long97th

Small tradersNon-reportable positions56,37543,369+13,006−1,8293.1%33^rdMid-range43rd

Open interest 1,837,146Commercials usually sit opposite large speculators — that is hedging, not a view.

Large speculatorsNon-commercial traders

2^ndExtreme short

Long306.4kShort522.9kNet−216.5kWk chg+5.1k

CommercialsHedgers and producers

99^thExtreme long

Long605.8kShort402.3kNet+203.5kWk chg−3.2k

Small tradersNon-reportable positions

33^rdMid-range

Long56.4kShort43.4kNet+13.0kWk chg−1.8k

Open interest 1,837,146

Three years of positioning

NATURALGAS close on each report date (own panel, own scale) · Large speculators net position (contracts) · dashed = 10th / 90th percentile of the weeks shown

3-year percentile, every week · blue = long side · rose = short side

Large speculators

Commercials

Small traders

Table view: all 156 weeks

This reading in context

Window high−50,659 · Tue 10 Oct 2023
Window low−221,587 · Tue 15 Sep 2026
Weeks at 90th+0 of 29 · how rare this reading is

Past extreme readings

Extreme short22 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 2nd · net −216.5k
Extreme long22 Sep ’26 · Commercials · 99th · net +203.5k
Extreme short15 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 0th · net −221.6k
Extreme long15 Sep ’26 · Commercials · 100th · net +206.8k
Extreme short8 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 0th · net −219.8k
Extreme long8 Sep ’26 · Commercials · 100th · net +201.1k
Extreme short1 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 0th · net −208.9k
Extreme long1 Sep ’26 · Commercials · 100th · net +193.4k
Extreme short25 Aug ’26 · Large speculators · 3rd · net −197.9k
Extreme long25 Aug ’26 · Commercials · 98th · net +187.7k

Weekly change, last 12 reports

7 Jul+5,05722 Sep

Large speculators added to their net position this week, reversing the week before.

WTI crude oil29^th RBOB gasoline77^th ULSD (heating oil)42^nd Ethanol77^th

Positioning is descriptive: it shows where each group stands against its own history, not where price goes next. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.

What the COT report is, and how to read it

What the COT report is

Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.

Why a percentile, not the raw number

Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).

How people read the extremes

Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.

What it can’t tell you

The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.

Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.