US Ultra T-bond COT report: large speculators at the 14th percentile of three years

Name: US Ultra T-bond Commitments of Traders positioning
Creator: TradeEasy

Large speculators are more short than in 86% of the last 156 weekly reports. They hold 336,725 contracts net short, up 8,478 on the week.

UD · CFTC Legacy report, futures only · data as of Tue 22 Sep 2026 · published Fri 25 Sep · next Fri 2 Oct, 15:30 ET

Large speculators · 3-year percentile

14^thStretched short

Last week 11th1-year 11th

Positions by trader group

Trader groupLongShortNetWk chg% OI long3-year percentile1-yr

Large speculatorsNon-commercial traders148,968485,693−336,725+8,4786.0%14^thStretched short11th

CommercialsHedgers and producers2,090,1481,771,902+318,246−3,94884.4%82^ndStretched long88th

Small tradersNon-reportable positions209,835191,356+18,479−4,5308.5%59^thMid-range63rd

Open interest 2,476,197Commercials usually sit opposite large speculators — that is hedging, not a view.

Large speculatorsNon-commercial traders

14^thStretched short

Long149.0kShort485.7kNet−336.7kWk chg+8.5k

CommercialsHedgers and producers

82^ndStretched long

Long2.09MShort1.77MNet+318.2kWk chg−3.9k

Small tradersNon-reportable positions

59^thMid-range

Long209.8kShort191.4kNet+18.5kWk chg−4.5k

Open interest 2,476,197

Three years of positioning

Large speculators net position (contracts) · dashed = 10th / 90th percentile of the weeks shown

3-year percentile, every week · blue = long side · rose = short side

Large speculators

Commercials

Small traders

Table view: all 156 weeks

This reading in context

Window high−189,714 · Tue 17 Jun 2025
Window low−419,398 · Tue 16 Jul 2024
Weeks at 90th+0 of 27 · how rare this reading is

Past extreme readings

Extreme short1 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 7th · net −369.3k
Extreme long1 Sep ’26 · Small traders · 99th · net +51.5k
Extreme short25 Aug ’26 · Large speculators · 2nd · net −406.0k
Extreme long25 Aug ’26 · Commercials · 98th · net +397.8k
Extreme long18 Aug ’26 · Commercials · 95th · net +350.1k
Extreme long14 Jul ’26 · Small traders · 94th · net +41.1k
Extreme long30 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 93rd · net +42.1k
Extreme short2 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 7th · net −8.3k
Extreme short26 May ’26 · Small traders · 3rd · net −12.1k
Extreme short19 May ’26 · Small traders · 4th · net −9.7k

Weekly change, last 12 reports

7 Jul+8,47822 Sep

Large speculators added to their net position this week, reversing the week before.

30-day Fed funds80^th US 2-year T-note97^th US 5-year T-note100^th US 10-year T-note45^th US 30-year T-bond14^th

Positioning is descriptive: it shows where each group stands against its own history, not where price goes next. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.

What the COT report is, and how to read it

What the COT report is

Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.

Why a percentile, not the raw number

Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).

How people read the extremes

Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.

What it can’t tell you

The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.

Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.