Euro FX COT report: large speculators at the 11th percentile of three years

Name: Euro FX Commitments of Traders positioning
Creator: TradeEasy

Large speculators are more short than in 89% of the last 156 weekly reports. They hold 52,334 contracts net short, down 25,341 on the week.

Positions are in the euro fx futures contract: “long” means long the euro fx against the US dollar.

E6 · CFTC Legacy report, futures only · data as of Tue 22 Sep 2026 · published Fri 25 Sep · next Fri 2 Oct, 15:30 ET

Large speculators · 3-year percentile

11^thStretched short

Last week 15th1-year 9th

Positions by trader group

Trader groupLongShortNetWk chg% OI long3-year percentile1-yr

Large speculatorsNon-commercial traders220,708273,042−52,334−25,34126.9%11^thStretched short9th

CommercialsHedgers and producers489,579460,612+28,967+28,75759.6%89^thStretched long93rd

Small tradersNon-reportable positions80,11356,746+23,367−3,4169.7%21^stStretched short7th

Open interest 821,689Commercials usually sit opposite large speculators — that is hedging, not a view.

Large speculatorsNon-commercial traders

11^thStretched short

Long220.7kShort273.0kNet−52.3kWk chg−25.3k

CommercialsHedgers and producers

89^thStretched long

Long489.6kShort460.6kNet+29.0kWk chg+28.8k

Small tradersNon-reportable positions

21^stStretched short

Long80.1kShort56.7kNet+23.4kWk chg−3.4k

Open interest 821,689

Three years of positioning

EURUSD close on each report date (own panel, own scale) · Large speculators net position (contracts) · dashed = 10th / 90th percentile of the weeks shown

3-year percentile, every week · blue = long side · rose = short side

Large speculators

Commercials

Small traders

Table view: all 156 weeks

This reading in context

Window high+180,305 · Tue 10 Feb 2026
Window low−75,573 · Tue 10 Dec 2024
Weeks at 90th+0 of 29 · how rare this reading is

Past extreme readings

Extreme short18 Aug ’26 · Large speculators · 7th · net −59.1k
Extreme short11 Aug ’26 · Large speculators · 7th · net −60.0k
Extreme long11 Aug ’26 · Commercials · 90th · net +29.2k
Extreme short4 Aug ’26 · Large speculators · 7th · net −58.1k
Extreme long4 Aug ’26 · Commercials · 91st · net +31.5k
Extreme short28 Jul ’26 · Large speculators · 1st · net −72.4k
Extreme long28 Jul ’26 · Commercials · 98th · net +51.7k
Extreme short21 Jul ’26 · Large speculators · 10th · net −41.3k
Extreme long21 Jul ’26 · Commercials · 90th · net +18.0k

Weekly change, last 12 reports

7 Jul−25,34122 Sep

Large speculators reduced their net position this week, reversing the week before.

British pound4^th Japanese yen80^th Swiss franc61^st Australian dollar55^th Canadian dollar74^th New Zealand dollar62^nd

Positioning is descriptive: it shows where each group stands against its own history, not where price goes next. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.

What the COT report is, and how to read it

What the COT report is

Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.

Why a percentile, not the raw number

Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).

How people read the extremes

Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.

What it can’t tell you

The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.

Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.