Coffee COT report: large speculators at the 4th percentile of three years
Large speculators are more short than in 96% of the last 156 weekly reports — still net long, but near the bottom of their 3-year range. They hold 10,273 contracts net long, down 5,197 on the week.
Positions by trader group
Open interest 153,035
Three years of positioning
Table view: all 156 weeks
This reading in context
- Window high+76,520 · Tue 28 Jan 2025
- Window low−15,815 · Tue 10 Oct 2023
- Weeks at 90th+0 of 29 · how rare this reading is
Past extreme readings
- Extreme short22 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 4th · net +10.3k
- Extreme long22 Sep ’26 · Commercials · 96th · net −11.4k
- Extreme short15 Sep ’26 · Large speculators · 9th · net +15.5k
- Extreme long15 Sep ’26 · Commercials · 90th · net −16.9k
- Extreme short23 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 8th · net −55
- Extreme short16 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 1st · net −717
- Extreme short9 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 4th · net −391
- Extreme short2 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 9th · net +117
- Extreme short26 May ’26 · Small traders · 9th · net +135
- Extreme short19 May ’26 · Small traders · 2nd · net −579
Weekly change, last 12 reports
Large speculators have reduced their net position for 4 straight weeks.
Related contracts
Positioning is descriptive: it shows where each group stands against its own history, not where price goes next. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What the COT report is, and how to read it
What the COT report is
Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.
Why a percentile, not the raw number
Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).
How people read the extremes
Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What it can’t tell you
The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.
Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.