COT extremes board — markets at positioning extremes this week
Every contract whose traders sit at the outer edge of their own range, split by side. Extreme readings are rare by definition; they describe a crowded position, not when it ends.
Crowded long
90th percentile and above- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +281.6k100thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −880.9k100thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +90.5k99thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +56.1k99thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +535.8k98thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +26.5k98thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −907.1k97thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +103.0k96thExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +2.8k93rdExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −7.4k93rdExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +164.4k93rdExtreme long
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +15.7k90thExtreme long
Crowded short
10th percentile and below- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −10.8k0thExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −68.3k1stExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −216.5k2ndExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +28.3k3rdExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net +10.3k4thExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −82.6k4thExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −75.8k4thExtreme short
- Large speculators · 3-year percentile · net −4.5k10thExtreme short
Each reading is ranked over the longest weekly history we hold for that contract, up to three years — the label says which (“2-year percentile”). Extreme readings are rare by definition; they describe a crowded position, not when it ends. Commercials are often most short when large speculators are most long — that is hedging. Switch the trader group above to compare.
How to read the COT report
What the COT report is
Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.
Why a percentile, not the raw number
Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).
How people read the extremes
Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What it can’t tell you
The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.
Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.