Hot-rolled coil steel COT report: large speculators at the 77th percentile of three years
Large speculators are more long than in 77% of the last 156 weekly reports. They hold 8,707 contracts net long, down 222 on the week.
Positions by trader group
Open interest 42,807
Three years of positioning
Table view: all 156 weeks
This reading in context
- Window high+14,462 · Tue 24 Mar 2026
- Window low−6,835 · Tue 16 Jul 2024
- Weeks at 90th+14 of 29 · how rare this reading is
Past extreme readings
- Extreme long22 Sep ’26 · Small traders · 100th · net +836
- Extreme long15 Sep ’26 · Small traders · 99th · net +526
- Extreme long8 Sep ’26 · Small traders · 95th · net +434
- Extreme long23 Jun ’26 · Large speculators · 95th · net +11.8k
- Extreme short23 Jun ’26 · Commercials · 5th · net −12.2k
- Extreme long16 Jun ’26 · Large speculators · 97th · net +12.0k
- Extreme short16 Jun ’26 · Commercials · 4th · net −12.4k
- Extreme long9 Jun ’26 · Large speculators · 95th · net +11.7k
- Extreme short9 Jun ’26 · Commercials · 5th · net −12.1k
- Extreme long9 Jun ’26 · Small traders · 93rd · net +419
Weekly change, last 12 reports
Large speculators reduced their net position this week, reversing the week before.
Related contracts
Positioning is descriptive: it shows where each group stands against its own history, not where price goes next. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What the COT report is, and how to read it
What the COT report is
Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds what in each regulated futures market, as of the previous Tuesday. The Legacy report groups traders into large speculators (non-commercial), commercials (hedgers and producers) and small traders (positions too small to report), so you can see which side each group is on.
Why a percentile, not the raw number
Contract counts mean little on their own: 18,000 contracts is a lot in silver and very little in the S&P 500. So each net position is ranked against the same contract’s own last 3 years (156 weekly reports). The 92nd percentile means more long than in 92% of those weeks. Where we hold fewer weeks, the page says so (“1-year percentile”).
How people read the extremes
Readings at or above the 90th percentile, or at or below the 10th, are rare by definition — the group is unusually one-sided. That describes positioning; it is not a forecast. Crowded positions can stay crowded for months.
What it can’t tell you
The data is three days old when published and covers futures only. It shows positions, not intentions or timing, and says nothing on its own about where price goes next.
Educational information, not investment advice. Positioning data: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy report, futures only), via Financial Modeling Prep. Percentiles are computed by TradeEasy against each contract’s own history. Past positioning does not predict future prices.