Inflation & prices
Why prices rise, which gauges the Fed watches, and how each release moves rates. Every note filed under this section.
6 notes, newest first
RSSSix Central Banks Align on Rate Hikes Over One Shared Cause
Sweden, Japan, the euro area, India, Rwanda and the Federal Reserve all shifted hawkish within six weeks. Several named the same geopolitical driver, revealing a traceable supply-side transmission rather than coordinated global inflation.
Headline PCE Diverges from Core in July Release Amid Energy Pressure
The July PCE release highlighted a clear split between headline and core measures. Headline came in at 3.7% while core printed 3.3%, showing how energy shocks widen the gap between the two. The market's shifting interpretation of the same data over six hours underscores that the print is only half the story.
PCE vs CPI: Why the Fed Targets the Less-Watched Gauge
CPI grabs headlines and moves markets, but the Federal Reserve targets PCE for its 2% inflation goal. The two measures often diverge due to coverage and substitution effects, creating real consequences for policy decisions.
Why Some Inflation Responds to Interest Rates and Some Doesn't
Not all inflation behaves the same. This analysis explains why interest rates tame demand-driven price rises but struggle with supply shocks and imported costs. Currency channels and economic openness determine whether the tool actually works.
How a Conflict Becomes an Interest Rate Decision
A single conflict can travel from oil prices to inflation expectations and finally into monetary policy. This post traces the full chain and shows why central banks eventually name the event in their statements.
What Is Core PCE — and Why Does It Exclude the Thing Everyone's Paying For?
Core PCE fell for the first time since the pandemic while petrol prices climb. Learn what this Fed-preferred inflation gauge measures, why it strips out food and energy, and how to read the data without getting misled.