Gold & commodities
What actually moves gold, oil and the rest of the commodity complex. Every note filed under this section.
5 notes, newest first
RSSHow a Conflict Becomes an Interest Rate Decision
A single conflict can travel from oil prices to inflation expectations and finally into monetary policy. This post traces the full chain and shows why central banks eventually name the event in their statements.
Why Correlations Break: Bitcoin's Disconnect From Risk-On Assets
This week equities, gold and silver rose on textbook risk-on conditions while Bitcoin stayed flat. The post explains that risk-on is not a single mechanism but multiple independent drivers that can diverge. Understanding these separate engines reveals why labels like digital gold or risk asset often fail to explain price action.
What Actually Moves the Gold Price (It's Not Just Fear)
Gold rose 4% this week despite easing geopolitical tension, showing fear isn't the only driver. Discover the three mechanisms—real yields, physical demand, and haven bids—that actually move gold and why it can rise alongside equities.
How Services PMI Moves the Dollar and Why Gold Feels It
Europe's economy is expected to shrink while the US holds steady. The gap between these outcomes drives rate expectations, currency moves, and ultimately gold prices through a clear four-step chain.
How to Use COT Data for Gold Trading: Institutional Signals
Gold hit $4,900 this year. A subset of traders already had positions because they read the institutional signal flagged three weeks earlier. Learn how to use COT data for gold trading and build it into your pre-session routine.