ECB interest rate decision (Oct)
Thu 29 October · 09:15 ET (14:15 Frankfurt) · in 12 d 1 h. The central bank’s policy rate decision.
- Forecast
- No forecast
- Previous
- 2.65%
- Actual
- Due 09:15 ET
Below 2.65%In line 2.65% to 2.65%Above 2.65%
▏Forecast —○ Previous 2.65%
The levelsMeasured from its last 8 prints
| Below | Below 2.65% | EUR down EUR/USD down EUR/GBP down EUR/JPY down |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 2.65% to 2.65% | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 2.65% | EUR up EUR/USD up EUR/GBP up EUR/JPY up |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. EUR up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when EUR does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 8 prints vs the forecast before each: 0 above · 8 in line · 0 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | Sep | 2.65% | 2.65% | In line with forecast |
| 23 Jul 2026 | Jul | 2.4% | 2.4% | In line with forecast |
| 11 Jun 2026 | Jun | 2.4% | 2.4% | In line with forecast |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Apr | 2.15% | 2.15% | In line with forecast |
| 19 Mar 2026 | Mar | 2.15% | 2.15% | In line with forecast |
| 5 Feb 2026 | Feb | 2.15% | 2.15% | In line with forecast |
| 18 Dec 2025 | Dec | 2.15% | 2.15% | In line with forecast |
| 30 Oct 2025 | Oct | 2.15% | 2.15% | In line with forecast |
What moved
After it prints: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.