US unemployment rate (Oct)
Fri 6 November · 08:30 ET · in 20 d 1 h. Share of the labour force without work but seeking it.
- Forecast
- No forecast
- Previous
- 4.2%
- Actual
- Due 08:30 ET
Below 4.1%In line 4.1% to 4.3%Above 4.3%
▏Forecast —○ Previous 4.2%
The levelsMeasured from its last 12 prints
| Below | Below 4.1% | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 4.1% to 4.3% | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 4.3% | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.1%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 12 prints vs the forecast before each: 4 above · 3 in line · 5 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | Sep | 4.1% | 4.2% | Above forecast |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Aug | 4.1% | 4.1% | In line with forecast |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Jul | 4.2% | 4.1% | Below forecast |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Jun | 4.3% | 4.2% | Below forecast |
| 5 Jun 2026 | May | 4.3% | 4.3% | In line with forecast |
| 8 May 2026 | Apr | 4.3% | 4.3% | In line with forecast |
| 3 Apr 2026 | Mar | 4.4% | 4.3% | Below forecast |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Feb | 4.3% | 4.4% | Above forecast |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Jan | 4.4% | 4.3% | Below forecast |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Dec | 4.5% | 4.4% | Below forecast |
| 16 Dec 2025 | Nov | 4.4% | 4.6% | Above forecast |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Sep | 4.3% | 4.4% | Above forecast |
What moved
After it prints: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.