US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Fri 23 October · 09:45 ET · in 6 d 1 h. Purchasing-managers survey — above 50 signals expansion.
- Forecast
- 55.6
- Previous
- 55.9
- Actual
- Due 09:45 ET
Below 55.2In line 55.2 to 56Above 56
▏Forecast 55.6○ Previous 55.9
The levelsMeasured from its last 11 prints
| Below | Below 55.2 | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 55.2 to 56 | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 56 | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.4). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 11 prints vs the forecast before each: 6 above · 1 in line · 4 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | Sep | 57 | 55.9 | Below forecast |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Aug | 53.2 | 53.9 | Above forecast |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Jul | 53.8 | 53.9 | Above forecast |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Jun | 55.7 | 53.9 | Below forecast |
| 1 Jun 2026 | May | 55.3 | 55.1 | Below forecast |
| 1 May 2026 | Apr | 54 | 54.5 | Above forecast |
| 1 Apr 2026 | Mar | 52.4 | 52.3 | Below forecast |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Feb | 51.2 | 51.6 | Above forecast |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Jan | 51.9 | 52.4 | Above forecast |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Dec | 51.8 | 51.8 | In line with forecast |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Nov | 51.9 | 52.2 | Above forecast |
What moved
After it prints: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.