US core PCE price index, month on month (Sep)
Thu 29 October · 08:30 ET · in 12 d. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, excluding food and energy.
- Forecast
- 0.2%
- Previous
- 0.2%
- Actual
- Due 08:30 ET
Below 0.1%In line 0.1% to 0.3%Above 0.3%
▏Forecast 0.2%○ Previous 0.2%
The levelsMeasured from its last 11 prints
| Below | Below 0.1% | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 0.1% to 0.3% | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 0.3% | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.1%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 11 prints vs the forecast before each: 1 above · 7 in line · 3 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | Below forecast |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line with forecast |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Jun | 0.2% | 0.1% | Below forecast |
| 25 Jun 2026 | May | 0.3% | 0.3% | In line with forecast |
| 28 May 2026 | Apr | 0.3% | 0.2% | Below forecast |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | In line with forecast |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | In line with forecast |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Jan | 0.4% | 0.4% | In line with forecast |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Dec | 0.3% | 0.4% | Above forecast |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line with forecast |
| 5 Dec 2025 | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line with forecast |
What moved
After it prints: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.