US retail sales, month on month (Sep)
- Actual
- 0.1%
- Forecast
- 0.3%
- Previous
- 1.2%
Below 0.05%In line 0.05% to 0.55%Above 0.55%
▏Forecast 0.3%○ Previous 1.2%● Actual 0.1%
In line with its usual range0.05% to 0.55%: the playbook gives no direction for an in-line print.
What moved
- EUR/USD+0.10%
- GBP/USD+0.11%
- USD/JPY−0.21%
- Gold+0.23%
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after (08:00 → 10:00 ET), from 1-hour bars. Timing, not cause: other news lands in the same window.
At the same minute
- High importanceContinuing Jobless Claims (Oct/03)1,710K vs 1,710KIn line with its usual range
- High importanceInitial Jobless Claims (Oct/10)199K vs 200KIn line with its usual range
- High importanceJobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/10)198.5K vs 199KIn line with its usual range
- High importanceNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct)25.5 vs 10.3Above its usual range
- High importanceProducer Price Index MoM (Sep)1.3% vs 0.5%Above its usual range USD up
- High importanceRetail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)0.9% vs 0.5%Above its usual range USD up
- High importanceRetail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Sep)0.2% vs 0.2%In line with its usual range
- High importanceRetail Sales YoY (Sep)6.3% vs 5.2%Above its usual range USD up
The levelsMeasured from its last 12 prints
| Below | Below 0.05% | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 0.05% to 0.55% | Limited follow-throughLanded here |
| Above | Above 0.55% | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.25%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 13 prints vs the forecast before each: 6 above · 2 in line · 5 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Sep | 0.3% | 0.1% | Below forecast |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Aug | 0.8% | 1.2% | Above forecast |
| 14 Aug 2026 | Jul | 0.1% | −0.6% | Below forecast |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line with forecast |
| 17 Jun 2026 | May | 0.4% | 0.7% | Above forecast |
| 14 May 2026 | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | In line with forecast |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Mar | 1.4% | 1.7% | Above forecast |
| 1 Apr 2026 | Feb | 0.5% | 0.6% | Above forecast |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Jan | 0.2% | 0.3% | Above forecast |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Dec | 0.4% | 0% | Below forecast |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Nov | 0.4% | 0.6% | Above forecast |
| 16 Dec 2025 | Oct | 0.1% | 0% | Below forecast |