US ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Mon 2 November · 09:00 ET · in 16 d 1 h. US purchasing-managers survey — above 50 signals expansion.
- Forecast
- No forecast
- Previous
- 54.5
- Actual
- Due 09:00 ET
Below 53.9In line 53.9 to 55.1Above 55.1
▏Forecast —○ Previous 54.5
The levelsMeasured from its last 12 prints
| Below | Below 53.9 | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 53.9 to 55.1 | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 55.1 | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.6). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 12 prints vs the forecast before each: 5 above · 0 in line · 7 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | Sep | 55 | 54.5 | Below forecast |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Aug | 55.2 | 54.6 | Below forecast |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Jul | 54 | 55.6 | Above forecast |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Jun | 54 | 53.3 | Below forecast |
| 1 Jun 2026 | May | 53 | 54 | Above forecast |
| 1 May 2026 | Apr | 53 | 52.7 | Below forecast |
| 1 Apr 2026 | Mar | 52.5 | 52.7 | Above forecast |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Feb | 51.8 | 52.4 | Above forecast |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Jan | 48.5 | 52.6 | Above forecast |
| 5 Jan 2026 | Dec | 48.3 | 47.9 | Below forecast |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Nov | 48.6 | 48.2 | Below forecast |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Oct | 49.5 | 48.7 | Below forecast |
What moved
After it prints: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.