Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Wed 28 October · 14:00 ET · in 11 d 6 h. The central bank’s policy rate decision.
- Forecast
- 4%
- Previous
- 4%
- Actual
- Due 14:00 ET
Below 4%In line 4% to 4%Above 4%
▏Forecast 4%○ Previous 4%
The levelsMeasured from its last 8 prints
| Below | Below 4% | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 4% to 4% | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 4% | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 8 prints vs the forecast before each: 0 above · 8 in line · 0 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | — | 4% | 4% | In line with forecast |
| 29 Jul 2026 | — | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line with forecast |
| 17 Jun 2026 | — | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line with forecast |
| 29 Apr 2026 | — | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line with forecast |
| 18 Mar 2026 | — | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line with forecast |
| 28 Jan 2026 | — | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line with forecast |
| 10 Dec 2025 | — | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line with forecast |
| 29 Oct 2025 | — | 4% | 4% | In line with forecast |
What moved
After it prints: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.