US inflation rate, year on year (Sep)
- Actual
- 3.7%
- Forecast
- 3.6%
- Previous
- 3.4%
Below 3.3%In line 3.3% to 3.9%Above 3.9%
▏Forecast 3.6%○ Previous 3.4%● Actual 3.7%
In line with its usual range3.3% to 3.9%: the playbook gives no direction for an in-line print.
What moved
- EUR/USD−0.69%
- GBP/USD−0.74%
- USD/JPY+0.31%
- Gold−1.24%
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold from the hour before to the hour after (08:00 → 10:00 ET), from 1-hour bars. Timing, not cause: other news lands in the same window.
At the same minute
- High importanceCPI s.a (Sep)336.3 vs 335.8Above its usual range USD up
- High importanceCore Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)0.3% vs 0.2%Above its usual range USD up
- High importanceCore Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)2.6% vs 2.5%Above its usual range USD up
- High importanceInflation Rate (Sep)336.94 vs 336.65Above its usual range USD up
- High importanceInflation Rate MoM (Sep)0.6% vs 0.6%In line with its usual range
- Low importanceCPI n.s.a MoM (Sep)0.59%In line with its usual range
- Low importanceCore Inflation Rate (Sep)338.9Above its usual range USD up
- Low importanceReal Earnings MoM (Sep)−0.5%Below its usual range
The levelsMeasured from its last 11 prints
| Below | Below 3.3% | USD down EUR/USD up GBP/USD up USD/JPY down Gold up |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 3.3% to 3.9% | Limited follow-throughLanded here |
| Above | Above 3.9% | USD up EUR/USD down GBP/USD down USD/JPY up Gold down |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.3%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. USD up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when USD does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 12 prints vs the forecast before each: 2 above · 6 in line · 4 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Sep | 3.6% | 3.7% | Above forecast |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Aug | 3.4% | 3.4% | In line with forecast |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Jul | 3.4% | 3.4% | In line with forecast |
| 14 Jul 2026 | Jun | 3.8% | 3.5% | Below forecast |
| 10 Jun 2026 | May | 4.2% | 4.2% | In line with forecast |
| 12 May 2026 | Apr | 3.7% | 3.8% | Above forecast |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Mar | 3.3% | 3.3% | In line with forecast |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Feb | 2.4% | 2.4% | In line with forecast |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Jan | 2.5% | 2.4% | Below forecast |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Dec | 2.7% | 2.7% | In line with forecast |
| 18 Dec 2025 | Nov | 3.1% | 2.7% | Below forecast |
| 24 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.1% | 3% | Below forecast |