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High importanceUKGBP · Growth · 15 Oct 2026 · 02:00 ET · released

UK GDP, month on month (Aug)

Actual
0.1%
Forecast
−0.1%
Previous
0.4%

Below −0.3%In line −0.3% to 0.1%Above 0.1%

▏Forecast −0.1%○ Previous 0.4%● Actual 0.1%

Above its usual rangeGBP upabove 0.1%.

What moved

  • GBP/USD−0.01%
  • EUR/GBP−0.06%
  • GBP/JPY−0.02%

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY from the hour before to the hour after (01:00 → 03:00 ET), from 1-hour bars. Timing, not cause: other news lands in the same window.

At the same minute

  • High importanceBalance of Trade Non-EU (Aug)−5.29B vs −9.9BAbove its usual range
  • High importanceGoods Trade Balance (Aug)−18.01B vs −21.8BAbove its usual range GBP up
  • Medium importanceGDP 3-Month Avg (Aug)0.7% vs 0.5%Above its usual range GBP up
  • Medium importanceIndustrial Production MoM (Aug)0.8% vs −0.1%Above its usual range GBP up
  • Medium importanceManufacturing Production MoM (Aug)1.2% vs −0.1%Above its usual range GBP up
  • Medium importanceNIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Aug)0.7% vs 0.5%Above its usual range GBP up
  • Low importanceBalance of Trade (Aug)−0.92B vs −3.6BIn line with its usual range
  • Low importanceConstruction Output MoM (Aug)−0.2% vs 0%In line with its usual range

The levelsMeasured from its last 11 prints

BelowBelow −0.3%GBP down
GBP/USD down EUR/GBP up GBP/JPY down
In line−0.3% to 0.1%Limited follow-through
AboveAbove 0.1%GBP upLanded here
GBP/USD up EUR/GBP down GBP/JPY up

In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.2%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. GBP up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when GBP does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.

Its own historyLast 12 prints vs the forecast before each: 6 above · 3 in line · 3 below

−0.3%−0.08%0.15%0.38%0.6%Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Oct ’26

— Forecast before the print● Actual

Release history

ReleasedPeriodForecastActualPosition
15 Oct 2026Aug−0.1%0.1%Above forecast
11 Sep 2026Jul0%0.4%Above forecast
13 Aug 2026Jun0%0.3%Above forecast
16 Jul 2026May0.1%0.1%In line with forecast
12 Jun 2026Apr−0.1%−0.1%In line with forecast
14 May 2026Mar−0.2%0.3%Above forecast
16 Apr 2026Feb0.1%0.5%Above forecast
13 Mar 2026Jan0.2%0%Below forecast
12 Feb 2026Dec0.1%0.1%In line with forecast
15 Jan 2026Nov0.1%0.3%Above forecast
12 Dec 2025Oct0.1%−0.1%Below forecast
13 Nov 2025Sep0%−0.1%Below forecast