UK inflation rate, year on year (Sep)
Wed 21 October · 02:00 ET (07:00 London) · in 3 d 18 h. Change in the general price level.
- Forecast
- 3.4%
- Previous
- 3.1%
- Actual
- Due 02:00 ET
Below 3.35%In line 3.35% to 3.45%Above 3.45%
▏Forecast 3.4%○ Previous 3.1%
The levelsMeasured from its last 12 prints
| Below | Below 3.35% | GBP down GBP/USD down EUR/GBP up GBP/JPY down |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 3.35% to 3.45% | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 3.45% | GBP up GBP/USD up EUR/GBP down GBP/JPY up |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.05%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. GBP up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when GBP does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 12 prints vs the forecast before each: 1 above · 6 in line · 5 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Aug | 3.1% | 3.1% | In line with forecast |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jul | 2.9% | 2.9% | In line with forecast |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Jun | 2.7% | 2.6% | Below forecast |
| 17 Jun 2026 | May | 3% | 2.8% | Below forecast |
| 20 May 2026 | Apr | 3% | 2.8% | Below forecast |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Mar | 3.3% | 3.3% | In line with forecast |
| 25 Mar 2026 | Feb | 3% | 3% | In line with forecast |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Jan | 3% | 3% | In line with forecast |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Dec | 3.3% | 3.4% | Above forecast |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Nov | 3.5% | 3.2% | Below forecast |
| 19 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.6% | 3.6% | In line with forecast |
| 22 Oct 2025 | Sep | 4% | 3.8% | Below forecast |
What moved
After it prints: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.