High importanceJPJPY · Other · 20 Oct 2026 · 19:50 ET · in 3 d 11 h

Japan balance of trade (Sep)

Tue 20 October · 19:50 ET (08:50 Tokyo) · in 3 d 11 h.

Forecast: −250B
Previous: −1,105.6B
Actual: Due 19:50 ET

Below −504BIn line −504B to 4BAbove 4B

▏Forecast −250B○ Previous −1,105.6B

The levelsMeasured from its last 12 prints

Below	Below −504B	No mapped direction
In line	−504B to 4B	Limited follow-through
Above	Above 4B	No mapped direction

In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 254B). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. JPY up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when JPY does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.

Its own historyLast 12 prints vs the forecast before each: 7 above · 0 in line · 5 below

— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range

Release history

Released	Period	Forecast	Actual	Position
15 Sep 2026	Aug	−1,052.6B	−1,105.6B	Below forecast
19 Aug 2026	Jul	−680B	−634.5B	Above forecast
21 Jul 2026	Jun	−120B	−406.9B	Below forecast
16 Jun 2026	May	−564.6B	−378.7B	Above forecast
20 May 2026	Apr	−29.7B	301.9B	Above forecast
21 Apr 2026	Mar	1,106B	667B	Below forecast
17 Mar 2026	Feb	−483.2B	57.3B	Above forecast
17 Feb 2026	Jan	−2,142.1B	−1,152.7B	Above forecast
21 Jan 2026	Dec	357B	105.7B	Below forecast
16 Dec 2025	Nov	71.2B	322.2B	Above forecast
20 Nov 2025	Oct	−280B	−231.8B	Above forecast
21 Oct 2025	Sep	22B	−234.6B	Below forecast

What moved

After it prints: The pairs it maps from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.