Euro area inflation rate, year on year (Sep)
- Actual
- 3.8%
- Forecast
- 3.8%
- Previous
- 3.2%
Below 3.75%In line 3.75% to 3.85%Above 3.85%
▏Forecast 3.8%○ Previous 3.2%● Actual 3.8%
In line with its usual range3.75% to 3.85%: the playbook gives no direction for an in-line print.
What moved
- EUR/USD+0.14%
- EUR/GBP−0.03%
- EUR/JPY+0.10%
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY from the hour before to the hour after (04:00 → 06:00 ET), from 1-hour bars. Timing, not cause: other news lands in the same window.
At the same minute
- High importanceInflation Rate (Sep)104.31 vs 104.3Above its usual range EUR up
- Medium importanceBalance of Trade (Aug)−16.1B vs 14.7BBelow its usual range
- Low importanceCPI n.s.a (Sep)104.31 vs 104.3Above its usual range EUR up
- Low importanceCore Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)0.2% vs 0.2%In line with its usual range
- Low importanceCore Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)2.5% vs 2.5%In line with its usual range
- Low importanceHarmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)0.2% vs 0.2%In line with its usual range
- Low importanceHarmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)2.2% vs 2.2%In line with its usual range
- Low importanceInflation Rate MoM (Sep)0.6% vs 0.6%In line with its usual range
The levelsMeasured from its last 12 prints
| Below | Below 3.75% | EUR down EUR/USD down EUR/GBP down EUR/JPY down |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 3.75% to 3.85% | Limited follow-throughLanded here |
| Above | Above 3.85% | EUR up EUR/USD up EUR/GBP up EUR/JPY up |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.05%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. EUR up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when EUR does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 13 prints vs the forecast before each: 2 above · 7 in line · 4 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | Sep | 3.8% | 3.8% | In line with forecast |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Aug | 3.3% | 3.2% | Below forecast |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jul | 2.9% | 2.9% | In line with forecast |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Jun | 3% | 2.8% | Below forecast |
| 2 Jun 2026 | May | 3.2% | 3.2% | In line with forecast |
| 20 May 2026 | Apr | 3% | 3% | In line with forecast |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Apr | 2.9% | 3% | Above forecast |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Mar | 2.6% | 2.5% | Below forecast |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Feb | 1.9% | 1.9% | In line with forecast |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Jan | 1.7% | 1.7% | In line with forecast |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Dec | 2% | 1.9% | Below forecast |
| 2 Dec 2025 | Nov | 2.1% | 2.2% | Above forecast |