China GDP growth, year on year (Q3)
Sun 18 October · 22:00 ET (10:00 Beijing) · in 1 d 14 h. Total output of the economy — the broadest growth measure.
- Forecast
- 4.4%
- Previous
- 4.3%
- Actual
- Due 22:00 ET
Below 4.25%In line 4.25% to 4.55%Above 4.55%
▏Forecast 4.4%○ Previous 4.3%
The levelsMeasured from its last 4 prints
| Below | Below 4.25% | CNY down |
|---|---|---|
| In line | 4.25% to 4.55% | Limited follow-through |
| Above | Above 4.55% | CNY up |
In line is the forecast ± how far this series usually lands from it (median miss 0.15%). Above or below that is a genuine surprise. CNY up or down is the playbook’s mapping for this release; the pairs show how each quote moves when CNY does. Arithmetic, not a forecast.
Its own historyLast 4 prints vs the forecast before each: 2 above · 1 in line · 1 below
— Forecast before the print● Actual▮ Next release: in-line range
Release history
| Released | Period | Forecast | Actual | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | Q2 | 4.5% | 4.3% | Below forecast |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Q1 | 4.8% | 5% | Above forecast |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Q4 | 4.4% | 4.5% | Above forecast |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Q3 | 4.8% | 4.8% | In line with forecast |
What moved
After it prints: The pairs it maps from the hour before to the hour after, from 1-hour bars.